Report to/Rapport au :
Planning and Environment Committee
Comité de l’urbanisme et de l’environnement
16 September 2011 / le 16 septembre 2011
Submitted by/Soumis par : Nancy Schepers, Deputy City Manager/Directrice municipale adjointe,
Infrastructure Services and Community Sustainability/Services d’infrastructure et Viabilité des
collectivités
Contact Person/Personne-ressource : Richard Kilstrom, Manager, Policy Development
and Urban Design/Élaboration de la politique et
conception urbaine,
Planning and Growth
Management/Urbanisme et Gestion de la croissance
(613) 580-2424 ext.22653, richard.kilstrom@ottawa.ca
SUBJECT:
|
OBJET :
|
RAPPORT ANNUEL SUR
LE DEVELOPPEMENT - 2010 |
That Planning Committee receive this report for information.
Que le
Comité de l’urbanisme prenne connaissance de ce rapport.
Background
Planning and Growth Management Department produces the Annual Development Report (ADR) each year to track and provide analysis of demographic and economic data and related development activity in Ottawa and the Greater Ottawa Area. Where applicable, this data is measured against the City’s planning policy objectives and key indicators are compared with five other large Canadian cities to assess Ottawa’s relative position.
DISCUSSION
The ADR is a monitoring tool that provides valuable information to enable analysis related to growth and development. The 2010 edition provides updated information related to previous year’s data for trend analysis. Key Official Plan background data and policy objectives that the ADR directly monitors include:
Ottawa’s population at the end of 2010 is estimated at 917,570 persons, growing 1.1% from 2009. Projections adopted by Council in 2007 are tracking estimated actual growth closely, with mid-2010 figures only 611 persons apart, or within 0.1%. The Ottawa-Gatineau Census Metropolitan Area remains the fifth largest in Canada.
With the average number of people per household declining, Official Plan projections anticipate that households will increase faster than population. The number of households at the end of 2010 is estimated at 377,097, growing 1.4% from 2009. The proportion of single and semi-detached housing starts dropped from 45.4% in 2009 to 39.4% in 2010 while the proportion of rowhouse and apartment starts increased from 54.6% in 2009 to 60.6% in 2010. Apartment starts had their highest share (30%) since 1992.
The Official Plan promotes intensification, particularly within target designations, as a strategic direction to help manage growth within the urban area. In 2010 the share of new dwelling units in target designations was 24.5%, almost doubling the 13.9% share in 2009.
Intensification throughout the urban area increased from 30.2% in 2009 to 43.8% in 2010. OPA 76 establishes an intensification target of 36% for the 2007 to 2011 period; the intensification average from 2007 to 2010 was at 37.7% and exceeds this target.
The Official Plan restricts conversions when the rental vacancy rate is below 3% and permits the conversion of rental buildings with five or more units to condominium or freehold ownership only when the vacancy rate is at or above 3% for two consecutive annual reporting periods, and rents in the building to be converted are above the average (by unit type). Ottawa’s low vacancy rate in 2009 and 2010 of 1.5% and 1.6% respectively has not permitted conversions.
There are 22,478 units of social housing managed by public and non-profit housing providers. The Ottawa Community Housing Corporation has the largest portfolio with 14,617 units representing 65% of the total. There are an additional 1,001 non-market housing units from investment programs since 1999, including the City of Ottawa’s Action Ottawa program. Of these units, the central area of Ottawa has increased it’s share from 45.4% in 2009 to 56.2% in 2010. The Social Housing Registry reported receiving 4,464 applications, of which 1,752, or 39.2% were housed. This is a slight increase from 2009, when 38.6% of applicants were housed.
The Official Plan has an affordable housing target for 25% of all new ownership units to be affordable to households up to the 40th income percentile. Of the 6,239 ownership units completed in 2010, 9.2% were affordable to households up to the 40th percentile. This is up from 4.1% in 2009, primarily due to affordable condominium apartments. There were few rental housing starts in 2010.
The ADR also monitors other development indicators such as migration, employment, average resale house price, building permit value, real estate investment, the office, industrial and retail markets, and tourism.
Net migration to Ottawa decreased to 8,789 in 2008-2009 from 8,844 from the year before and ends four years of consecutive increases. Historically, migration has followed a series of peaks and troughs. This recent decrease, although slight at -0.6%, may signal the beginning of a trough cycle.
Migration between Ottawa and surrounding areas was in a net in-flow position in 2008-09. The city received a net gain of 350 persons from Gatineau and adjacent areas in Ontario and Quebec.
Ottawa-Gatineau gained 16,000 jobs in 2010 after a loss of 8,700 jobs last year, contributing to the lowest unemployment rate among the six major Canadian cities at 6.5%. Gains were spread across 10 of the 16 sectors, with Health and Education and Public Administration receiving the most gains at 11,200 jobs combined.
Ottawa’s housing construction rebounded from 2009’s 10-year low of 5,522 starts to 6,046 starts in 2010, an increase of 9.5%. The Greater Ottawa-Gatineau Area saw a 5.5% increase in starts from 9,564 in 2009 to 10,086 in 2010. Ottawa’s share of the regional housing market consequently grew from 57.7% in 2009 to 59.9% in 2010.
The average resale house price in Ottawa rose 8.5% to $348,763. While this was the third highest increase of the large Canadian cities, Ottawa’s resale market remains the second most affordable relative to average incomes.
Ottawa building permit values rose 4% from $1.9 billion in 2009 to $2.0 billion in 2010. Residential permit values increased 7.6% while non-residential permit values decreased -0.6%.
Real estate investment in Ottawa increased 16% to $1.05 billion in 2010, largely due to office investment (up 167%). That offset retail and industrial decreases of -51% and -35% respectively. Land investment declined for a fourth year in a row.
Ottawa-Gatineau’s office vacancy rate was the second lowest of large Canadian metropolitan areas at 7.5%; the city of Ottawa was even lower at 6.7%. Ottawa also had the most affordable net lease rate among large cities at $185/m2 ($17.15/ft2).
In the 2010 industrial market Ottawa had a lower vacancy rate at 5.8% than the two closest major cities. Ottawa’s average industrial lease rate was third among large cities at $83/m2 ($7.68/ft2). However, Ottawa was reported to have the highest net rent for Tech R&D at $118/m2 ($11/ft2).
In 2010, Ottawa-Gatineau retail sales increased 5.3% to $15.9 billion. Ottawa continues to have the third highest average retail sales per capita among major Canadian cities. The Power Centre retail format had the largest share of retail space at 25.6% while Mainstreets had 14.4%.
In tourism, Ottawa’s 2010 hotel occupancy rate of 67% was second only to Vancouver’s 68%, which hosted the 2010 Winter Olypmics. Ottawa was also awarded the Top North American Festival City in the 500,000 to 1 million population category by the International Festival and Events Association.
This is a City-wide report.
This report deals with research and analysis matters and, as such, public consultation was not undertaken. The Housing Services Branch of the City was consulted in the preparation of this report.
Comments by the Ward Councillor(s)
N/A
LEGAL IMPLICATIONS
There are no legal implications.
There are no risk management implications.
There are no direct financial implications associated with this report.
Technology Implications
N/A
City Strategic Plan
Planning and Growth Management:
Objective 1 – Become leading edge in community and urban design including housing creation for those living on low incomes and residents at large.
Objective 2 – Respect the existing fabric, neighbourhood form and the limits of existing hard services so that new growth is integrated seamlessley with established communities.
Document 1 Annual Development Report 2010 (distributed separately). Copies of the report are available at the City Hall Client Service Centre, and when translation is complete will also be posted in the Statistics section of the City web site.
That Planning and Growth Management staff continue to monitor and report changes in the city’s population, housing and economy on an annual basis.