First Five-Year Capital Budgetary Forecast (2002-2006)

The first five years (2002-2006) of the ten-year forecast period (2002-2011) have been planned in detail. The five-year forecast is based on the 2002 Capital Budget and Four-Year Forecast adopted by Council in March 2002. Some changes have been made to the Capital Budget and Forecast using the most current information available. Despite this careful planning, the City's budgetary environment is expected to change during this forecast period. These changes will result in revisions to priorities. Projects summarized in Table 3 represent what City staff knows at this time.

Projects have been divided into four categories: lifecycle, growth, ongoing projects, and new initiatives. (Project lists and summaries are included in Appendix 5.) In July 2002, Council directed staff to bring forward a five-per cent overall reduction in the 2003 capital envelope, reducing this envelope to $476 million. Final results of this directive will be included in the draft 2003 budget submission.

The total of this program exceeds the five-year program in the adopted 2002 Capital Budget and Four-Year Forecast by $42 million. This increase is composed of three major components:

• The Emergency Medical Services Facility is expected to be a public-private partnership. The City's 2002 budget included this project at a zero net cost. In this report, a gross cost of $20 million has been included in expenditures, and P3 funding applied to result in the same net zero capital cost.
• The Southwest Transitway Extension increased by $14 million.
• Park development increased by $6 million.

6.1 Lifecycle Maintenance (2002-2006)

Lifecycle maintenance accounts for 52 per cent of the capital forecast. Expenditures on lifecycle maintenance over the next five years will be determined by affordability. Over time, however, spending levels should increase to a level required to maintain the City's assets. Lifecycle maintenance is divided into five categories: fleet, property and facilities, information technology, transportation and environmental infrastructure, and water and sewer infrastructure.

Fleet From 2002 to 2004, replacing articulated buses will be a priority. Replacement costs should be $24 million in 2002 and $5 million in 2004 (see Appendix 4.2). Spending on other fleet vehicles should increase from $36 million in 2002 to $55 million in 2006, lowering the per centage of over-age vehicles in all classes.

Property and Facilities Spending on property and facilities is forecast to increase from $28 million in 2002 to $38 million by 2006. This increased spending should reduce the deferred maintenance backlog over the short term and eliminate it by 2011.

Information Technology Spending on information technology lifecycle maintenance is forecast to increase from $23 million in 2002 to $28 million in 2006. Appendix 4.3 outlines replacement measures to be implemented from 2002 to 2006.

Transportation and Environmental Infrastructure Spending on transportation infrastructure includes roads, sidewalks, transitways and solid waste facilities. Spending on these programs is forecast to increase from $57 million in 2002 to $67 million in 2006; much of this increase will go to road reconstruction and rehabilitation.

Water and Sewer Infrastructure Water and sewer programs include maintenance of the City's water distribution and collection network and its wastewater treatment system. Some of the essential components of these systems require extensive rehabilitation and are included in upcoming forecasts. Replacement of the 85-year-old transmission mains from the Lemieux Island Water Purification Plant and the Combined Sewer Area Operational Control Tunnel account for $91 million in this period. The control tunnel is an integral component of the combined sewer replacement strategy, needed to satisfy Ministry of Environment requirements. The alternative-continued sewer separation-would cost substantially more.

6.2 Growth (2002-2006)

Growth represents 27 per cent of expenditures over the first five years of the planning period. This figure is based on current needs, official and master plans, and the growth forecast. Spending levels in this category differ significantly from year to year. The 2002 Budget and 2003 Forecast includes many of the SuperBuild projects listed in Appendix 3.1. A substantial spending increase in 2004 is the result of several major projects: a new transit garage to accommodate fleet growth; new pools and ice pads; and transportation projects identified in current plans.

Other growth projects include pipe infrastructure to service urban development and large-scale step-like expansions to water and waste treatment facilities. For instance, a major expansion of water filtration capacity at the Lemieux Island Water Purification Plant is required to meet expected increases in demand. The R. O. Pickard Environmental Centre (ROPEC) also may require expansion. The growth forecast assumes continued use of the Trail Road waste facility, but does not include other waste disposal options should the province deny its approval.

6.3 Ongoing Programs (2002-2006)

Ongoing programs include transportation, utility, and environmental programs. Transportation programs include pedestrian accessibility, cycling facilities, on- and off-street parking facilities, street lighting, traffic management, traffic control and safety, transportation demand management, and transitway improvements. Utility programs include water quality and environmental compliance, flow monitoring, wastewater facilities upgrades, recycling bins, and household special-waste mobile depots.

Programs related to property and facilities include retrofitting for changed uses, and improving efficiency, accessibility and security. Also included in ongoing programs are community-related programs such as park improvements, sports field development, capital partnerships, affordable housing and childcare capital grants.

These programs are forecast to remain at consistent expenditure levels over the first five years of the planning period.

6.4 New Initiatives (2002-2006)

New initiatives are forecast to include: an emergency medical services facility; an emergency medical services advanced-care training program; an emergency and disaster response program; relocation of employment and financial assistance offices; a south-central district library; the police strategic staffing initiative; solid waste management alternatives; and enhanced waste diversion. In 2002 and 2003, specific transition-related projects of $68 million and $15 million are also forecast.

On the water and sewer rate supported side, anticipated regulatory changes over the first five years of the planning period will likely involve major projects like: ROPEC regulatory impacts; water purification plant water-quality improvement program; and water purification plant waste management. In addition, new initiatives resulting from the Safe Drinking Water Act remain unknown.

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