Where did we grow?
Five years after amalgamation and the adoption of the new city’s first population projections, it’s time to check on how Ottawa’s growth has matched those initial forecasts. Although the results of the 2006 Census will not be published for a few more months, City staff prepare population and household estimates twice a year based on residential building permits. This analysis will allow us to check how close City estimates match the projections and where variances occur.
The 2001 Projections
Council adopted new population projections in 2001 as a lead-up to the City’s first post-amalgamation Official Plan, which was adopted in 2003. The new projection was based on Scenario B, prepared by the Centre for Spatial Economics (CSE), a consulting firm that had been retained to produce population, household and job forecasts for the new city’s first twenty years.
Those projections call for the city of Ottawa’s population to reach 897,500 by mid-2006, 1,011,800 by mid-2011 and 1,192,000 by mid-2021. The number of households was projected to reach 357,700 by 2006, 410,600 by 2011 and 502,000 by 2021. The number of jobs was to reach 589,500 in 2006, 655,000 in 2011 and 749,000 in 2021.
The City’s 2006 Employment Survey, which is due for release in mid-2007, will help track the employment projection.
 |
The City of Ottawa’s Department of Planning, Transit and the Environment tracks population change by counting the number of building permits for new dwellings, subtracting the number of residential demolitions and providing an allowance for the rental vacancy rate, adjusted every year following the release of the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) Rental Market Survey.
The resulting number of dwellings is then multiplied by the average number of persons per dwelling by house type (taken from the latest Census). This is combined with the population in existing housing, adjusted for ongoing declines in average household size, to arrive at a population estimate based on occupied dwellings.
Population Projections: Lagging by a small but widening margin
Based on this method, the city of Ottawa had a 2006 mid-year population of 870,254. This is 27,246 fewer residents than the 897,500 that had been projected, or 3% lower.
The projections are also provided for each of the city’s sub-areas. Sub-areas are geographic districts used by City planners to demarcate the major areas of the city.
The sub-areas are informally combined into four groupings that roughly represent the city’s distinct planning contexts: Downtown (Central and Inner Areas); the rest of the urban area inside the Greenbelt (Ottawa West, Ottawa East, Beacon Hill, Alta Vista, Hunt Club, Merivale, Bayshore and Cedarview); the suburban centres outside the Greenbelt (Kanata, Stittsville, South Nepean, South Gloucester, Leitrim and Orléans); and the Rural Area (Northeast, Northwest, Southeast, Southwest).
The 2006 population projection has been exceeded in seven of the 20 sub-areas. Five of those seven sub-areas were inside the Greenbelt, lending credence to the prediction that there is an increased demand for housing closer to the centre of the city. The largest gap is in the Merivale sub-area, where estimated actual growth has surpassed the projection by 3,118 people. Strong residential development in Central Park and the addition of hundreds of student residences on the Algonquin College campus were the main drivers of this population growth.
 |
|
The next largest variances were in Stittsville, Hunt Club, Ottawa West, the Central Area, Alta Vista and the Rural Southeast. Hunt Club and Alta Vista have benefited from high levels of new development and redevelopment. The Central Area was, and remains, in the midst of a rejuvenation fuelled by a condominium boom. Ottawa West, and particularly the West Wellington-Richmond corridor, has been evolving organically into the westward extension of the pedestrian city, with numerous condominium and infill projects that have brought a fresh influx of new residents.
The Rural Southeast grew past the forecast on the strength of very active levels of residential development in and around Greely. Stittsville was the only suburban sub-area to exceed its population projection.
Thirteen of the 20 sub-areas had slower population growth than had been projected. The largest gap between actual and projected growth occurred in Kanata, where the shortfall is 12,338 people. Next was South Gloucester (Riverside South), where growth trails the projection by 6,497 people. In third place was the stable Inner Area, which is considered part of the larger Downtown area and whose growth lagged by 5,133 people, due partly to a jump in the rental vacancy rate since 2001. South Nepean was fourth with a deficit of 2,368. The mature inner area of Beacon Hill was fifth with 1,873 fewer residents than anticipated.
Overall, by mid-2006 the city had reached 97% of the projected population. The shortfall may partly be explained as the result of a cyclical trough in the metropolitan economy. Indeed, the high-tech downturn began at the same time as the projections were being finalized. Projections, by definition, are long-term exercises that cannot solely be judged by short-term tracking.
However, on the longer horizon, the current projections are premised on very aggressive net migration assumptions and, after five years, the gap between projected and actual growth is widening. This is despite the fact that Ottawa’s economy has weathered the high-tech downturn reasonably well. Federal employment picked up at the same time as high-tech employment was contracting, so the high-tech bust never really translated into an economic downturn for the city as a whole. Employment has kept growing through the last five years, although not at the rate projected. The high-tech sector is now mounting a comeback just as federal employment is again reaching a plateau.
Household projections: A different picture
 |
 |
The estimated number of households in 2006 is 350,917, a shortfall of 6,784 from the projected 357,700. The projections were exceeded in eight of the 20 sub-areas, and interestingly, some are different than the sub-areas in which population projections were exceeded.
Most notably, South Nepean was the sub-area with the highest number above the projection. By mid-2006, there were 1,008 more households than forecast in this sub-area that encompasses the fast-growing suburbs of Longfields, Chapman Mills and Stonebridge.
The fact that the number of South Nepean households increased beyond the projection but that population growth has actually lagged suggests that actual growth has been comprised of higher density housing, with fewer persons per dwelling, than had been anticipated. Residential developments such as the Java condo flats have proven extremely popular among first time buyers that, typically, consist of one- or two-person households. There may also have been fewer families with children moving to South Nepean than anticipated.
Likewise, in Orléans, which had a population shortfall of 697, there were 658 more households than forecast. As in South Nepean, the prevalence of smaller and denser housing in growing communities such as Avalon and Village Gate hold part of the explanation. More housing is being built, but it is populated by fewer people.
In general, these observations reveal the increasing diversity of Ottawa’s suburban communities. The suburbs in general are no longer the sole preserve of traditional families with children; more and more they are inhabited by single people or couples without children, either younger professionals or empty nesters and retirees who may have lived in those communities for a long time and wish to age in place.
On the other hand, it is interesting to observe that mature suburban sub-areas like Alta Vista and gentrifying urban neighbourhoods like Ottawa West experienced population growth beyond the projection, but household growth below the projection. In both cases, this indicates that there are more people moving into the area’s housing than anticipated. Alta Vista has a diverse housing stock with many affordable options that are attracting a large number of immigrants, who tend to have larger households. In Ottawa West, besides the condo boom along the West Wellington-Richmond Mainstreet and whose purchasers tend to be empty-nesters and retirees, the older residential neighbourhoods are being repopulated by families wishing to raise children in an urban environment.
The commonly accepted assumptions about housing choices for singles, families and seniors are being challenged by the evolution in people’s tastes and expectations. There are seniors and singles who prefer the suburbs, just like there are families who prefer to raise children in the central city.
Further insights into these trends will be provided when the results of the 2006 Census are published in 2007.
Official Plan Goals
 |
The City’s 2003 Official Plan is premised on a “grow in, not out” development strategy. Between 2001 and 2021, the population was projected to increase by 392,000 across the city. The area inside the Greenbelt was forecast to grow by 71,000, the three suburban centres outside the Greenbelt by 286,000 and the rural area by 35,000.
For the first five-year period, 2001-2006, the largest share of Ottawa’s population growth was projected for the southern suburbs outside the Greenbelt (South Nepean, South Gloucester, Leitrim), followed by the western suburbs (Kanata, Stittsville), and third by the urban area inside the Greenbelt (including Downtown).
According to City estimates, actual population growth does reflect the order that was originally projected, but the shares of growth for each of the major areas mentioned in the Official Plan has varied, sometimes considerably. The largest variation was observed in the western suburbs (Kanata and Stittsville). Instead of the forecast 29% of population growth, they accounted for only 23% of the city’s new residents. The southern suburbs came in slightly below the projection, at 33% instead of 34%.
The anticipated share of growth that did not go to the western and southern suburbs went instead to the eastern suburbs (Orléans), the urban area inside the Greenbelt and the rural area.
Dwelling Units
 |
 |
 |
 |
The projection called for 42,000 dwelling units to be built between 2001 and 2006. There were actually 33,074 dwellings for which a building permit was issued during that period, and it is reasonable to expect that most of those dwellings have been built. The actual amount of construction was therefore 21% below the projected total. In this total, all new dwelling units are counted, including apartments created within existing buildings (conversions or additions).
In terms of the types of dwellings, the projection had forecast that 44% of the new homes built between 2001 and 2006 would be single-detached, 44% would be ground-oriented multiples (mostly townhouses, and semi-detached) and 12% would be apartments. Actual permit data shows that there were significantly more apartments (23%) than expected, and fewer singles (41%) and multiples (36%).
Downtown is where the apartment projection was exceeded by the largest margin, in both share and actual numbers. The forecast called for about two-thirds of new dwellings downtown to be apartments, in fact 93% of the new housing added between 2001 and 2006 were apartments. The projection called for 2,217 apartment units to be added downtown, in fact there were 4,110. Although the downtown condominium boom is largely responsible for the surge in apartment construction, other parts of the city also had more apartments than expected. Apartment projections were also exceeded in the rest of the urban area inside the Greenbelt and, to a lesser degree, in Kanata and South Nepean.
The projections for multiple dwellings were exceeded mostly in suburban areas. The largest margin was observed in Leitrim, where the forecast was for 33% of new housing to be townhouses and semi-detached. Actual building permits for multiple dwellings in fact account for 48% of the new homes built between 2001 and 2006. Multiples also captured a larger share than expected in Orléans, Kanata, South Gloucester and, most unexpectedly, the Rural area.
As for single-detached homes, the projection was exceeded in two areas: Stittsville, where the 55% forecast turned into an actual share of 84%, and surprisingly, Downtown, where the numbers are too small to be significant but where a 1% share was achieved while 0% was projected. In all other areas, the projected share of single-detached homes was not reached by actual construction. The largest gaps were found in Leitrim and Kanata.
Although housing types respond to the cyclical ebbs and flows of housing affordability and the health of the metropolitan economy, the data also shows a series of larger trends. First, the return-to-downtown trend has gathered significant momentum. Second, the suburbs are home to a much more diverse population than might be expected. Third, the mature urban areas inside the Greenbelt, which are now considered much closer to the city centre than 20 years ago, are evolving and are exhibiting more urban types of housing.
These trends will serve to inform future revisions to population, household and dwelling projections.
In our next issue:
First results from the 2006 Census
[ top ]